April 8, 2015
Grain Marketing Specialist
April S & D report tomorrow @ 11am
With the Dollar sharply higher, and a weaker wheat market , corn was playing defense the entire session yesterday. Losses were limited with the support from the strength in crude oil. Moving into the overnight session, we saw a pretty quiet trade with a 2 cent range. Support sits around 3.83. Estimates for Thursday S & D report is around 1.85BB. That would be an increase from the March report which was 1.77BB. But if you look at year/year, last year at the same time we had a carryout of 1.2bb. That would be a 50% increase. Just something to keep an eye on going forward. More bird flu cases reported in Minnesota, may affect corn usage.
Soybeans: 2-5 Higher
The Dollar also played into a weaker Soybean market, along with favorable harvest weather in SA and the continued weakness in soymeal. On the overnight session we saw a .05 range in front of the report Thursday. Support seems to be positioning itself around 9.52-9.55 range on the May contract. Looking at estimates on Thursday carryout, soybeans are looking for an estimate of 371MB with a range of 345-391MB. That would be a reduction of around 14mb from the March report of 395MB. This time last we were looking at a 92mb carryout. So if we come in range of 371mb that is 4x larger than were we were a year ago, ago. Again something to keep an eye on as we move forward.
Wheat: 2-5 better
Wheat traded lower yesterday with moisture falling in much of HRW areas and better than expected crop conditions. Also decent weather in the Black Sea region and the dollar found itself stronger had the market struggling. In the Overnight session, a mixed trading range across all three markets, with Spring Wheat gaining the most strength. Slight increase on estimates for tomorrow report of 692 vs. 691 on the March report. Spring wheat planting has been getting done in the Dakotas and MN where the weather will allow it.
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