February 11 2015
Grain Marketing Specialist
Corn: 2 to 3 lower
The USDA report yesterday was in between neutral to slightly friendly on the US balance table, although the increased world stocks was sour point in the report and turn markets lower. March closed down 3 at $3.88, July closed down 3 cents at $4.03 ¾ and December closed down 2 at $4.18. The negativity spilled over into the overnight as most contracts were about 2 lower. US ending stocks were lowered 50 million bushels .The USDA raised corn used for ethanol 75 million bushels to 5.250 billion bushels. We have had several weeks of pretty strong production. Feed and residual was lowered by 25 million bushels. March contracts has resistance around $3.93 and doesn’t seem to move too far from $3.85...support down at $3.80 December contracts bounced off $4.20 resistance with support down at $4.10
Soybeans: 2-3 lower
The soybeans traded lower yesterday on ideas of big SA supplies, talk of SA bean shipments to Mexico, a strong US$ and favorable SA weather conditions. The USDA reported friendly numbers on the US balance sheet for beans and reduced the Brazilian soybean production. March closed down 9 at $9.69, July closed down 11 at $9.79 and November closed down 10 at $9.53. This down market continued into the overnight with most contracts down 2 across the board. US saw a 10mb increase in bean imports, a 15mb increase in crushings and a 20mb increase in exports. That resulted in a 25mb reduction to ending stocks for 2014-15, a little more than what the trade was expecting. While the USDA did lower the Brazilian production by 1.0mmt, to 94.5mmt, it is going to be a big crop, just shy of an 8.0mmt increase over last year’s record production of 86.7mmt. Argentina’s bean production was raised 1.0mmt to 56.0mmt.A huge SA crop, along with ideas of a fairly decent US crop yet to be planted; all this adds up to a huge world supply of soybeans.
Wheat: 3-5 Lower
The wheat market traded lower on strength in the US$, lack of demand and an increase to both the US and world ending stocks. Mpls March closed down 6 at $5.70, KC March closed down 9 at $5.54 and Chicago March closed down 8 at $5.21. The overnight wheat markets all saw a negative trade. The USDA reduced US imports by 20.0mb, exports by 25.0mb resulting in a 5.0mb increase in overall wheat ending stocks. Feed and residual was left unchanged in this report. Spring wheat ending stocks were lowered 20.0mb, exports were increased by 10.0mb and total supply was lowered by 10.0mb. Quality issues still remain in the news especially in Winter Wheat. Also still unrest in the Ukraine as meetings between Russia, Ukraine France and Germany to see if a resolution can be found.