October 24, 2011
By: Craig Haugaard, Grain Origination Manager
CORN: 10 higher
It is said that a rising tides raises all ships and that principle seems to have been at work in the overnight markets. The situation in Europe is at least perceived as improving and with that are coming renewed possibilities for exports. With the dollar a little lower this morning we are seeing the bullish enthusiasm on the upswing. The cattle on feed report that came out on Friday is also bullish with the USDA showing more cattle on feed and placements than what the trade was looking for. On the negative side I see that the Ukraine appears to be entering the export market with corn that is considerably cheaper than that offered by the USA. One story that I read also is projecting that India will be exporting some cheap corn this year as well. In South America planting is moving along with 45% of the crop in Argentina now in the ground. From a technical standpoint I thought the close on Friday was putrid but with the overnight action all three of my technical indicators are still bullish. As I noted on Friday, a decisive close above $6.52 opens the door for a move to at least $6.77 and possibly $7.01 basis the December futures.
SOYBEANS: 13 higher
The Chinese markets were higher last night as was the palm oil market. That coupled with the idea that Europe may have their financial house closer to being in order allowed the bean market to move higher in the overnight. We will want to keep a close eye on planting in South America but right now everything appears to be going well down there. Technically, two of my three indicators are bearish the November futures and I still this as a trading range market with solid support in the November futures at $11.52 with resistance at $12.72.
WHEAT: 13 higher
This is a double D market today as it appears we are trading debt and drought. With the fears over European debt waning and the fears of drought in HRW a constant drumbeat as of late the wheat market should be able to post a higher close today. All three of my technical indicators are bullish for both Kansas City and Minneapolis markets. As you can see on the following Minneapolis March futures chart we are working up towards the top of the recent trading range and that $8.78 level may prove to be significant resistance. If we can break through that I would look for the next resistance level to be at $8.98 and you know if we get there we will test $9.00 just because it is so darn close.
The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.