October 12, 2011
By: Craig Haugaard, Grain Origination Manager
CORN: 5 lower
Well, my opinion that yesterday we should “see an unremarkable session today” could not have been more wrong as buyers streamed into this market ahead of the report. This mornings report will probably be viewed as a surprise as well. Planted acres were reduced slightly to 91.9 million while harvested acres slipped 500,000 to 83.9 million. The national average yield was left unchanged from the September report at 148.1 bu/acre. Total production was dropped from 12.497 billion bushels to 12.433 billion. Exports were also reduced by 50 million to give us ending stocks of 866 million. If memory serves me correctly the average trade estimate coming into this report was for an ending stocks number of 806 so this report will probably be viewed as negative, especially in light of all the speculative buying that we saw yesterday. World carry-out also surged going from a projected 117.39 billion bushels last month to 123.19 billion this morning. The impact of this report may be tempered by the announcement that China bought 1.5 MMT of corn from the USA yesterday. I believe that last year they only bought 1.6 MMT of corn from us for the entire year.
In beans the planted aces were left unchanged at 75 million while the harvested acres were only reduced by 100,000 to 73.7 million acres. The great early harvest yield reports have been giving way to more sobering numbers as of late but the trade was still on average looking for a yield number this morning of 41.8 bu/acre. This would have been unchanged from the last report but instead we saw a slight slippage as the national average yield this morning is now projected to be 41.5 bu/acre. This, coupled with the reduced acres, caused the total production number to slip from 3.085 last month to 3.060 this morning. On the demand side of the ledger the projected exports were dropped from 1.415 to 1.375 to give us an ending stocks number of 160 million bushels, down 5 million from last month’s report.
WHEAT: 10 lower
Wheat saw the harvested acres slip by 200,000 to 45.7 million acres. The national average yield also slipped from last month’s report with the yield dropping from a projected 45.2 bu/acre to 43.9 bu/acre in this morning’s report. This dropped total production from last month’s estimate of 2.077 to this morning’s number of 2.008. On the demand side of things we saw a 50 million bushel reduction in the export number which gives us a projected ending stocks number of 837, up from the 761 of a month ago. The world stage also saw wheat stocks increase, going from a projected 194.59 billion bushels to 202.37 billion in today’s report.
The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.