The headline for a story in The Financial Times of London yesterday read as follows:

‘Time short’ for eurozone, says Cameron

The story spoke to the idea that they have just weeks to “avert economic disaster” in Europe.  As this plays out it could mean a stronger US dollar which would tend to be negative to commodities.

October 10, 2011
By: Craig Haugaard, Grain Origination Manager


CORN: 10 higher

REMARKS:
Another choppy session Friday with the biggest piece of bear news being the announcement by Ukraine that they will be suspending export tariffs on everything except barley.  This measure was taken in large part because the tariffs made it tough for them to compete with Russian grains and now that they have been removed we could see up to 10 MMT of grain move from Ukraine into the export market.  When traders weren't discussing this turn of events they seemed to be speculating on what the October 12 report will tell us.  The average trade guess as we sit here this morning is for a national average yield of 148.9 bu/acre.  The guesses that I have seen range from 147.2 to 150.9 bu/acre.  As harvest gets going in full gear we are seeing some very good yields reported out of MN, IA and NE with more of a mixed bag here in good old South Dakota.  We are seeing a real grab bag of results in MO and IL as well.  On the other hand we are hearing some poorer yields being reported in OH and IN so it will be interesting to see where this all shakes out.  It seems that as we have gotten deeper into harvest the yield reports have become more disappointing.  Technically nothing has changed with two of my three technical indicators remaining bearish. We have solid support at $5.75 in the December futures and if we assume that level will be the low for this move the Fibonacci numbers would suggest resistance in the December corn futures at $6.52 level. 

SOYBEANS: 26 higher

REMARKS:
With dry beans being harvested across the fruited plain it is interesting to contemplate the simple fact that according to Iowa State University taking a 50 bu crop at 13% moisture and dropping the moisture level of those beans to 8% takes the yield down by 2.8 bushels.  It will be interesting to see if the dryness of the crop has any impact on the eventual national average yield.  For now the average trade guess coming into the October 12 report is that we will see a 42 bu/acre national average yield.  The range of guesses coming from the trade run from 41 to 42.9 bu/acre.  From a technical perspective, two of my three indicators are bearish. 


WHEAT: HRS 9 higher    HRW 13 higher

REMARKS:
The Ukrainian news put pressure on the winter wheat during Friday’s session but spring wheat came through relatively unscathed.  Also on that side of the ocean I see that Kazakhstan is projecting that they will grow a record grain crop of roughly 23 MMT, well up from the 12 MMT of last year.  Domestically, over the week-end we had good rains in the eastern and central HRW areas but the parched western HRW came up dry once again so to speak.  That should be viewed as bullish this morning.  Technically, all three of my indicators for Minneapolis HRS have turned bullish while two of the three are still bearish for Kansas City HRW.

The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.