December 11, 2013
Grain Marketing Specialist
Corn looks to be steady in overnight trade. Corn ended the day slightly lower yesterday, March corn closing down 2 cents at $4.36 - report anxiety came and went and offering little in the way of excitement. USDA lowered carryout 95 mbu (versus average guess looking for a 75 mbu carryout cut) at 1.79 bbu. USDA raised exports and Ethanol usage 50 mbu each (imports up 5 mbu likely Canadian corn). Total exports now projected to be 1.45 bbu, while ethanol grind expected to be 4.95 bbu. Some in the trade were looking for an even bigger increase in exports though ATI analysts question whether or not the current USDA projection is overstated. In terms of Global numbers, USDA raised global corn production 1.45 MMT but also raised corn usage by 2 MMT(45 MMT higher usage than LY). South American corn production was unchanged versus last month. Global coarse grain ending stocks were cut by 700 K MT at 196.9 MMT. For the foreseeable future, corn will slowly grind lower.
Soybeans: 1 Higher
Soybeans are slightly higher, well off overnight highs. Today’s report came out as expected with the U.S. bean carryout at 150mbu vs the average trade guess of 153. World carryout was approximately a MMT less than expectations at 70.6, but the USDA kept Brazil’s crop estimate unchanged at 88mmt while CONAB came out with their latest estimate of 90mmt. USDA did raise their Argentina estimate 1mmt from last month to 54.5. The drop of 20 mbu from last month’s carryout came a 25 mbu increase in exports a 5 mbu increase in crush while imports grew 10 mbu.
Wheat: 2-3 Lower
Wheat in all classes is trading lower this morning. Wheat futures closed off sharply yesterday as USDA released its Dec WASDE report. U.S. carryout increased 10 mbu vs expectations for an 18 mbu decline. World production was increased 5 mmt with ending stocks up 4.3 mmt from November. Domestically, imports from Canada were increased 10 mbu, with usage categories unchanged. As U.S. competitiveness begins to improve, there is a potential future increase in exports. By class, the HRW balance sheet was untouched. SRW and HRS both gained 5 mbu of the imports but SRW exports increased 5 mbu (net ending stocks unchanged) and HRS had exports cut 5 mbu (net ending stocks up 10 mbu). As a whole that leaves wheat “comfortable” but still the lowest carryout since the 07/08 tightness. Worldwide, production at 711.4 is a record. By country, notable production changes were Canada at 37.5 mmt (matches StatsCan from last week), Argentina left unchanged at 11.0 mbu which had seen expectations of a drop, and Australia up 1 mmt to 26.5 mmt. Egypt tendered for wheat post close today for Jan 10-20 shipment. Terms are normal with the usual mix of suppliers being courted.
The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.